Coastal flooding danger from 24-26 May?

[a_haworthroberts]

I've just emailed the Met Office as follows:
"Saturday 25 May - potentially urgent query.
Is the Met Office expecting a North Sea storm surge around this date?
Requiring sea defences to be readied and probable closure of the Thames
barrier. There's a full moon on Saturday. The five day forecast on BBC
Countryfile indicating north westerly gales or severe gales in the
northern North Sea on Friday, and the forecaster unexpectedly used the
word 'interesting'.
Mr A Haworth-Roberts"

[a_haworthroberts]

Received a rapid reply:
"Thank you for your enquiry.
I have taken advice from my colleagues within the Met Office Flood Forecasting Center who have advised me that they are constantly monitoring this and many other situations within the United Kingdom and at present, the likelihood of this event is of low probability. The Met Office and the Environment Agency are in contact 24 hours a day and if situations do call for any precautionary action to be implemented, please be assured teams across the UK are kept informed.
For information on the Thames Barrier and its operational status, please direct any questions to the Environment Agency's press office at the following address - pressoffice@environment-agency.gov.uk or by phone on 0207 863 8710.
Kind Regards,"

[a_haworthroberts]

E mail as just sent:


I received a prompt reply from the Met Office soon after emailing
them. It read: "I have taken advice from my colleagues within the Met
Office Flood Forecasting Centre who have advised me that they are
constantly monitoring this and many other situations within the United
Kingdom and at present, the likelihood of this event is of low
probability. The Met Office and the Environment Agency are in contact
24 hours a day and if situations do call for any precautionary action
to be implemented, please be assured teams across the UK are kept
informed".

I'm sure the risk of a storm surge on Friday or Saturday remains low.

The weather charts which were in existence last night resembled those
for 8-9 November 2007 - when there was a storm surge in the North Sea,
although in England it caused very little coastal damage or flooding.
The charts suggested a long fetch of strong to gale-force north north-
westerly winds over the open ocean and towards the southern North Sea.
More or less coinciding with a full or new moon - as in 2007. However,
in 2007 a rather deep depression moved south eastwards through the
northern North Sea into southern Scandinavia. That would have caused a
bulge in sea level to the north - which the strong winds then blew
southwards into the shallow southern North Sea. Whereas last night's
forecasts for the end of this week suggested that a rather less deep
depression near Denmark would edge westwards or south-westwards late in
the week, towards Lincolnshire or Norfolk (with strengthening winds as
pressure remains high to the south west). Tonight the forecasts seem to
suggest that this will now happen either late on Thursday or early on
Friday - and that the depression in question may rapidly fill, and the
associated winds moderate - at least a day ahead of the full moon.

In the 2007 event (some might say non-event but it was a close run
thing) there were (revised) predictions of a storm surge peak height of
around 2.9 metres in Norfolk and Suffolk if the surge more or less
coincided with a spring high tide. But the surge weakened overnight and
the peak height was just over 2.8 metres - within around 10 cm of the
tops of sea walls. Had the peak reached 2.9 metres this would have
caused more than just localised flooding - the peak was also within 18
cm of potentially disastrous flooding perhaps approaching the severity
of the infamous early 1953 event.

[a_haworthroberts]

But Spring 2013 for the UK could turn out even (slightly) colder than 1962 (5.80 C)- and the coldest in official records.